The hottest search for structural investment oppor

2022-08-24
  • Detail

Looking for structural investment opportunities in the global semiconductor industry chain

I. global semiconductor industry: looking at structural opportunities in the future, the semiconductor industry has developed since the 1950s. It is an important technology to promote the development of the global science and technology industry. The era of mainframe computer, PC and Nb experienced before 2000 is the fastest-growing stage of the semiconductor industry. The Internet and era after the 21st century still drive the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, With the slowdown of the overall terminal shipment growth of consumer electronics and the expansion of the scale base of the global semiconductor industry, the global semiconductor industry will enter a mature period in the future, and the growth rate of the whole industry will slow down. It is expected that the CAGR will be in the range of +/- 5% in the next five years, and the global semiconductor industry will mainly look for structural investment opportunities

II. Demand structure: consumer electronics innovation, automotive electronics, IOT, artificial intelligence, ar/vr, etc. will be the core driving forces in the future. In the downstream composition of the global semiconductor industry, consumer electronics (, PC, Nb, etc.) is currently dominant, accounting for more than 65%. The driving forces of the semiconductor industry are divided into two categories: (1) continuous volume of new terminals; (2) The electronization rate continues to improve. We judge that the high structural growth of global downstream demand in the future comes from: (1) the high growth of new IC (AMOLED driver, wireless charging chip, etc.) driven by consumer electronics innovation, (2) the continuous improvement of automotive electronization rate leads to the continuous and stable growth of automotive semiconductors; (3) IOT, AI, ar/vr and other new terminals continue to grow in volume

III. product structure: AMOLED driver, GPU, FPGA, 32-bit MCU, new memory chips, etc. will develop rapidly. Structural changes in downstream demand will drive the structural growth of IC chip products in the future. Most of them are buffer cylinders with air entering. The chip products that we judge the future deterministic growth include: (1) consumer electronics innovation drives the high growth of AMOLED driver chips, fingerprint identification chips, wireless charging chips, etc; (2) Cloud computing, AI and VR industries drive the high growth of parallel computing chip GPU; (3) In the future, new industry applications and new algorithms will drive the high growth of FPGA with flexibility and low cost advantages; (4) The burst of IOT drives the high growth of sensor chips, communication chips and low-power, highly integrated MCU; (5) Data storage requirements continue to improve, driving the high growth of new memory chips such as PCM and 3D xpoint

IV. technology upgrading: FinFET process below 10nm, EUV equipment, downstream application of next-generation semiconductor new materials and product upgrading require high-end chips to further improve their performance and power consumption indicators. In the future, it will mainly rely on continuous upgrading of semiconductor technology. Future semiconductor core technology and process upgrading include: (1) wafer factory process: at present, the mainstream 16/14nm process is to finfe2 below 10nm. This machine adopts computer measurement and control drive system The electric load measurement system and the U.S. digital long displacement detection system are upgraded. The characteristics of many categories and small quantities of IOT, automotive semiconductors and other applications drive the development of minimalfab process; (2) Semiconductor equipment: the further reduction of feature size drives the continuous upgrading of core equipment such as EUV lithography machine; (3) Basic materials: in the past decades, the silicon material process has gradually upgraded to the next generation of semiconductor materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride

v. industrial chain structure: the foundry trend is determined, the proportion of fablite is increased, and the merger and acquisition of the industrial chain accelerates the development of the industry into qualified maturity of components and the path of technological upgrading, which constantly affects and changes the mode and pattern of the industrial chain. The main trends of the global semiconductor industrial chain in the future are: (1) division of labor in the industrial chain: the capital investment of advanced process Fabs increases exponentially, and the foundry mode can maximize the sharing of technology upgrading costs, and will still be the mainstream mode of advanced process ICs in the future, IDM concentrates its resources on its own advantageous products, and non core and highly difficult process ICs will gradually adopt fablite strategy; (2) Industry chain integration: the global semiconductor industry chain has entered a mature stage, and cooperation between companies has been strengthened, and mergers and acquisitions of the industry chain have accelerated

VI. supply structure: the mainland will be the fastest-growing region. The time, place and people are in harmony, ushering in the golden decade. The global semiconductor pattern is changing in development: the semiconductor industry originated in the United States in the 1950s, Japan caught up in the 1980s, South Korea and Taiwan rose in the 1990s, and the mainland industry began to develop after the 21st century, forming the pattern of Europe, America, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

the semiconductor industry is a typical capital intensive and technology intensive industry, and the "Matthew effect" is significant. The rise of industry chasers is often when the rules of the game change. Combing and summarizing the development path of the semiconductor industry in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, we can find that the chasers cannot achieve their rise without the "timing" of the opportunities of the times, the "geographical advantages" of countries and regions in the comparative advantages of core elements, and the government "Human harmony" in industry

the 1.5mm thick usu304 stainless steel plate outside continental semiconductors sprouted at the beginning of the 21st century. In the past, Continental semiconductors faced the dilemma of "market without technology". Under the background of new markets, technology slowdown and strong government support, the rise of continental semiconductors has "favorable timing", "favorable location" and "harmonious people", and will usher in the "golden decade"

VII. The future rise path of mainland semiconductors: from the leading role of packaging and testing to the comprehensive development of IC design, foundry and materials and equipment, downstream demand changes, product structure changes, industrial chain structure changes, supply structure changes, etc. jointly promote the international re division of labor of the global semiconductor industry. The theory of laughter curve points out the essence of international division of labor of industry: the transformation of international division of labor mode from product division to factor division, Enterprises all over the world participating in international division of labor and cooperation complete a certain link in the formation of final products according to their respective factor endowments. The five core links of the semiconductor industry: materials, equipment, IC design, wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing. With the supporting R & D advantages of industrial clusters and the financial advantages in the field of wafer manufacturing, the mainland semiconductor industry will gradually develop from the current global division of labor led by packaging and testing to the rapid rise of IC design, wafer manufacturing and the gradual breakthrough of materials and equipment

VIII. Combing the excellent semiconductor companies in the world and in China, the excellent semiconductor listed companies in China are: (1) IC Design: Zhaoyi innovation (proposed to acquire ISSI), Quanzhi technology, Yangjie technology, huiding technology, Beijing Junzheng (proposed to acquire OV and sipico), jingjiawei, Zhongying electronics, Neusoft carrier; (2) Wafer manufacturing: SMIC International; (3) Semiconductor equipment: Seven Star electronics; (4) Semiconductor materials: Shanghai Xinyang, Qiangli Xincai, Nantah optoelectronics, etc; (5) Sealed test: Changdian technology, Tongfu wechat, Huatian technology, Jingfang technology

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI