The hottest point is to analyze the future trend o

Analyze the future trend of plastics from the perspective of cost and demand

since the middle and early February, the escalating unrest in Libya has led to a sharp rise in the price of crude oil. WTI rose from $84.32/ton (closed on February 14) to $112.79/barrel (closed on April 8), up 33.8% in less than two months, significantly raising the cost of bulk commodities; However, the domestic PP market is a new material solution that rebounds hard without affecting the cost and performance. Compared with the rise of crude oil over the same period, the increase of domestic wire drawing materials is only 4.5%

from the perspective of supply, Yanshan Petrochemical, which was originally scheduled to shut down for maintenance in April, postponed the maintenance time to the third quarter month. So far, the capacity of shut-down maintenance devices is small (see the table below), which has a small impact on the overall PP supply; In addition, it is noteworthy that Shaoxing Sanyuan new 300000 t/a PP plant was originally planned to be put into operation in April, but considering the sharp rise in the price of propylene monomer, it remains to be seen whether the plant can be successfully put into operation; In terms of import: in June, several production units in South Korea were overhauled intensively. At the same time, the scarcity of propylene monomer also forced some PP units to reduce the operating rate. The supply of PP in Asia is tightening, and the tension in the Middle East may have an impact on resources from the middle East. On the whole, although there is little pressure from import, the supply of domestic materials is still abundant

the hardness of impact testing machine is divided into: ① scratch hardness

enterprise name

device capacity (10000 tons)

maintenance situation

Dalian organic

5

continuous shutdown

7

the line will be shut down for maintenance for 10 days from March 10

it is understood that even through the microcomputer collection system Xitai

15

the line will be shut down for maintenance for 40 days from February 24

Dagang Petrochemical

10

was put into operation in October 2010, In late February 2011, due to lack of propylene, it was planned to restart on April 10

Qingdao refining company

20

on February 27, due to plant failure, it was shut down for maintenance until March 12

Yanshan Petrochemical

44.5

the original plan was to overhaul in April for one month, Postpone to month

Lanzhou Petrochemical

5

long term shutdown of the old unit

Zhongyuan ethylene

6

Zhongyuan methanol to olefin (MTO) project includes new 600000 T/a methanol to olefin, new 100000 t/a polypropylene unit and potential tapping and transformation of existing polyethylene units. The manufacturer plans to stop the docking device in January. It is expected to stop for 2 months

Jingmen Petrochemical

12

20 days from February 24; On March 30, it stopped again due to lack of propylene, restarted at the beginning of April

Shaoxing Sanyuan

20

it stopped for maintenance days from February 20, restarted at the beginning of March

Jinxi Petrochemical

15

it stopped due to lack of propylene at the beginning of March, and restarted at the beginning of April

Fujian United

12 + 40

120000 tons/year-old unit, stopped for maintenance for one month from March 29

Guangzhou.Petrochemicals

14

40 days from February 20, It was restarted at the beginning of April

6

from the historical data, the demand level in April was relatively good; However, the price of crude oil and other raw materials rose rapidly this year, and the production costs of downstream enterprises increased; In addition, the national monetary policy was tightened and interest rates were raised again in April, which was not conducive to the recovery of demand; External economic fluctuations, RMB appreciation and other factors have made downstream enterprises in a difficult situation, resisting high prices, and demand is still suppressed

at present, Libyan government forces and the opposition are in a tug of war, and the future development of the situation is full of uncertainty. Until the situation in Libya is clear, crude oil futures will continue to operate at a high level and are expected to reach a new high. High oil prices support PP costs strongly. On the whole, in April, there is still a confrontation between cost and demand. Under the condition of abundant supply and lack of demand support, the market is unlikely to show a benign upward trend, with slow shocks and upward exploration

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