The hottest pole vault and the most suspenseful oi

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Editor's note: This is not only a pole vault problem, but also an interesting economic problem. Like EVA's record breaking streak, the recent performance of international oil prices has also attracted attention, from $92.4 per barrel at the end of last year to $145.86 per barrel at the beginning of July, and then to $121 at the end of July At the same time, through the use of new energy vehicles, recyclable materials and other measures, it was $88/barrel, up 57.86% and down 16.44%. Who is the real driver of the oil price roller coaster in the sudden change

the treacherous world economy and the unpredictable Olympic Games, the uncertainty is like a wisp of gold, linking the extraordinary charm of two kinds of globalization

Rubin said, "the only certainty about the market is uncertainty." The same is true for the Beijing Olympic Games, where there are so many strong players. No one can accurately predict who will eventually win 303 gold medals. Interestingly, the "uncertainty" can also be ranked. So, which event has the least suspense about the ownership of the gold medal

some people say it's the men's basketball team, but although the US "dream 8" has a gorgeous lineup, its historical achievements are inevitably questionable; Some people say it's women's table tennis. Of course, China rose is superior in strength, but the fierce internal competition makes the women's singles competition full of variables; Some people say it's a man. Federer is famous, but natto is not so easy to deal with. In fact, more people will say it's women's pole vault. Isinbayeva, a 26 year old Russian player, just flew 5.04 meters in Monaco of the IAAF super grand prix on the 30th, breaking the world record for the 23rd time

will EVA fly over the crossbar higher than 5.04 meters on behalf of human beings in the Olympic Games? There is no doubt that she has this ability. According to a previous event video, at the moment of EVA's successful leap, her abdomen was close to 15 cm away from the crossbar, which made many people believe that EVA could raise the world record to more than 5.10 meters. However, EVA has been using the "small step" method to improve the record by 1 cm at a time. Because the prize money for breaking the world record is different in different competitions, some critics bluntly say that "EVA's selfish desire determines the world record"

it is undeniable that EVA's record breaking way of manufacturing smart composites was originally intended to bring higher value-added products, but in fact, this monetary factor is not decisive, and it is Eva's strength that really affects the world record. Without strength, no matter how selfish EVA is, she can't rewrite the record

who is the foundation and who is the base of actual elements and monetary elements

this is not only a pole vault problem, but also an interesting economic problem. Like EVA's record breaking streak, the recent performance of international oil prices is also remarkable, from 92.4 US dollars/barrel at the end of last year to 145.86 US dollars/barrel at the beginning of July, and then to 121.88 US dollars/barrel at the end of July. The rise of 57.86% and the fall of 16.44% are equally rapid. Who is the real driver of the oil price roller coaster in the sudden change

at a time when conspiracy theory and war theory are popular, many people regard the weak dollar or speculative forces as the root cause of the ups and downs of oil prices. Since most of the oil prices of Jinan Shijin 60 hydraulic fixture superchargers are priced in US dollars, the change in the value of the US dollar is indeed closely related to the change in oil prices. During the period when oil prices first rose and then fell, the US dollar also appreciated by 6.79% and then depreciated by 0.74%, but influence does not mean determination. The magnitude of the rise and fall of the US dollar and the volatility of oil prices are obviously far from each other. The empirical research also shows that the explanatory power of the US dollar exchange rate to the change of oil price in a long period of time, such as ordinary carbon structural steel, is also relatively limited

as for the argument that speculative forces influence oil prices, this may be the best explanation when there is no reasonable explanation. Because the monitoring of speculation and the statistics of speculative transactions are difficult actions. It is certain that speculative forces do play an important role in oil price fluctuations, but it is questionable to position them as the decisive factor of oil price trends

what can determine the trend of oil price can only be the physical factors from the actual supply and demand and the expectations of these factors, such as the increase or decrease and distribution of oil reserves, the total amount and channel of oil supply, the total amount and structure of oil demand, etc. The investigation shows that the root cause of the long-term rising trend of oil prices in the previous stage lies in the decline of oil reserves and the intensification of the situation of supply exceeding demand

data show that the proved crude oil reserves in the world in 2007 were 1.238 trillion barrels, which fell for the first time in eight years. The source of the short-term downward trend of oil prices in the latter stage lies in the shrinking demand in the foreseeable future. The recent "Fannie and Freddie" crisis has increased the possibility of economic recession in the United States. The IMF predicts that the world economic growth in 2008 will drop from 4.94% in 2007 to 3.73%. The author found that in the past 28 years, the world economic growth rate has fallen by more than 1 percentage point four times, each time accompanied by the decline in oil prices. Therefore, it is not surprising that oil prices experienced a short-term sharp correction in 2008, when growth expectations slowed sharply

(the author is a doctor of Finance and macroeconomic Analyst)

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